Will changing habits ensure sustainable mobility: System Dynamics modeling examples from municipalities in four countries

Alina Safronova, Aiga Barisa


The transportation industry stands out as a significant contributor to world emissions, which presents a significant obstacle to the process of decarbonization. This study recommends a comprehensive plan that addresses emissions not just on a national level but also on a local and individual level, with an emphasis on using a multi-dimensional approach. Our study aims to support municipalities in assessing and mitigating transportation-related emissions by using a system-dynamic approach and introducing a state-of-the-art instrument. In contrast to conventional assessments, which are primarily concerned with technical criteria, our approach takes into account the everyday routines of inhabitants as well as their willingness to accept sustainable policies.

Dynamic modeling enhances our understanding of the intricate correlation between technical metrics and socio-behavioral dynamics. This allows us to provide municipalities with a strong basis for the creation of effective initiatives aimed at reducing emissions. This research adds to the subject of sustainable urban planning by promoting the increased public acceptance of sustainable mobility schemes and encouraging active public involvement. This analysis allows municipalities to build policies that not only target technical emissions but also integrate smoothly into the social framework of the local community. This is made possible by the fact that this study emphasizes the relevance of holistic and community-centered approaches. For municipalities that are attempting to navigate the complexities of emissions reduction in the transportation sector, it gives significant insights that highlight the requirement of policies that are both inclusive and adaptive to promote a sustainable urban future.


CO2 emissions; local policies; SD modelling; socio-behavioural dynamics; transport sector

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DOI: 10.7250/%x


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Institute of Energy Systems and Environment
Riga Technical University
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